The credit card industry has seen many changes in 2019. A plethora of cards have had sign-up bonuses, earning structures, redemption options, perks, and/or annual fees change. Some of these changes have been for the better while others have been for the worse. But as 2019 ends, I figured that its time to predict what will happen in 2020. This post highlights my credit card predictions for 2020.
These predictions are mentioned in no particular order. Some of them are positive and others are negative.
Premium Cards Will Become Less Valuable
2019 was a terrible year for premium cards. Most issuers devalued their premium cards by raising annual fees and/or negatively changing perks. I have a feeling that this trend will continue into 2020 as more and more meat will fall off the bone.
Citi dropped several benefits from its entire card lineup in September and the biggest casualty was the Prestige Card. Most of the benefits that were dropped were useful (and quite common) for a premium card like the Prestige. Since then, the Prestige has become an excellent earner with a few remaining perks (like Fourth Night Free) and an increased $495 annual fee. I cannot imagine what is left to devalue on the Citi Prestige, but Citi might surprise everyone again. They might even discontinue the Prestige permanently if it doesn’t compete.
Furthermore, the Chase Sapphire Reserve is rumored to undergo some changes in 2020 according to Doctor of Credit (H/T). There might be an annual fee increase to $550, which puts the Reserve in line with the Amex Platinum Card. But Chase is rumored to add a dining credit to justify the increased fee. I hope that it’s in the same style as the Reserve’s $300 General Travel Credit if the rumor is true. An annual fee increase without adding a dining credit (or something else that’s just as valuable) will heavily devalue the Sapphire Reserve.
The American Express Platinum Card and its business counterpart were also devalued in 2019. Amex limited how cardholders can use its perks and got rid of some underused perks. I predict that Amex will continue to devalue the Platinum Card and cardholders will notice. We might see the addition of more worthless credits in lieu seldom-used perks that had some value.
American Express Will Continue to Close Accounts and Claw Back Rewards
American Express’ Rewards Abuse Team (RAT) has been on a war path throughout 2019. They are being very conservative by closing certain risky customers’ accounts. Closing such accounts is a smart idea to mitigate risk from American Express’ point of view. However, many people are angry and frustrated with American Express, especially if their accounts are affected.
Furthermore, Amex has been clawing back offers, sign-up bonuses, Membership Rewards (MR) points, and credits for those who they believe have been “gaming the system”. I was even clawed back for stacking a Dell Amex Offer with the Business Platinum Card’s Dell Credit.
One of my more negative credit card predictions is that this trend will continue, and that Amex will lose customers as a result. Unhappy Amex customers will go to Chase or Citi for transferrable points cards and other issuers for cash back cards.
Chase Will Release A Premium Business Card
The market niche for premium business cards is currently dominated by American Express. But Chase has a huge opportunity to compete with Amex in this niche. The timing would be excellent because Amex devalued the Business Platinum Card so much recently. Plus, the release of such a card might be as notable as that of the Sapphire Reserve in 2016.
Currently, Chase’s top business card is the mid-tier Ink Business Preferred. One of my more optimistic credit card predictions predict is that Chase will release a premium business card that will act as a counterpart to the Sapphire Reserve.
Mid-Tier Cards Will Become More Competitive
The latter half of the 2010s was huge for mid-tier credit cards. Many stalwarts have been revamped and new cards have come onto the market as well. I predict that 2020 will bring even more revamps, new cards, and overall competition to this booming niche.
American Express revamped the Gold Card and its business counterpart in 2018. They also revamped the Green Card in 2019. Both became excellent options for earning MR points. American Express has other cards to revamp and keep being competitive in 2020. The most notable ones are the Everyday Preferred Card and the Business Green Card.
Chase also has room to improve with the Sapphire Preferred Card. This card is one of the best for beginners, especially with its sign-up bonus. But there are better options out there for a similar annual fee. Chase has an opportunity to nimbly improve the Sapphire Preferred, especially with revamped competitors and possible changes to the Sapphire Reserve.
Many co-branded cards are also mid-tier cards. And some of them might be revamped in 2020 to make them more viable alternatives to transferrable points cards. Delta is leading the way as they are changing its entire suite of Amex cards (including the Delta Gold SkyMiles Card) in January 2020.
Capital One Will Improve Their Transferrable Points Program
Capital One made the Venture and Spark Miles cards into transferrable points cards when they partnered with 12 airlines in 2018. They partnered with three more airlines in 2019, slightly improving their program.
Capital One Miles are currently the least valuable transferrable points currency. However, Capital One can see this as an opportunity to improve their program. I predict that they will take a step in the right direction and make their miles more valuable.
I predict that Capital One will partner with at least one airline to diversify their redemption options. Plus, Capital One will give most of their partners 1:1 transfer ratios. This is the best and easiest way to make their miles more valuable. They don’t have to forge a new partnership, but rather change their rules internally. The future for Capital One will be bright if they take the necessary steps to improve their transferrable points program.
Barclays Will Not Bring Back the Arrival + Card
Barclays has become like Synchrony Bank in that they only offer co-branded cards in the United States. This started with the discontinuation of the Arrival + Card in 2019. Barclays has tried several times to compete in the mid-tier travel card market niche with the Arrival + Card and the short-lived Arrival Premier Card. But every time they tried, they failed.
Such failure came from the declining popularity of “travel cash back”. Travel cash back is a hybrid between points and cash back. This type of currency is points that can only be redeemed for statement credits to be used on travel purchases. This concept is losing popularity because of limited redemption options and fixed value. Barclays figured this out the hard way after failing enough times with the Arrival + Card and its derivatives. Therefore, I predict that Barclays has learned their lesson and will not bring back the Arrival +.
Final Draw
With fewer than two weeks left in 2019, I figured that now was a good time to predict the near future of the credit card landscape. This post gives my credit card predictions for the year 2020. It will be interesting to see which ones come true and which ones do not one year from now. But one fact is for certain: 2020 will be an exciting year for travelers.
