During the first Trump administration we saw the first iteration of the “Trump travel ban”. As per multiple news sources, we’re about to see another, more expanded version of the travel ban, putting severe restrictions on travel to the United States from 41 countries around the world.
Trump Travel Ban 2.0
As per the New York Times and Skift, the new ban, once implemented, could affect over 697,000 visitors to the United States of America. However, the total number of travelers that could be affected coul be a small number compared to the total number of visitors, given the smaller volume of visitors from those countries.
The administration has drafted three lists, based on levels of perceived security threat and restrictions.
Here is the list of countries:
Red List
- Venezuela
- Cuba
- Iran
- Syria
- Afghanistan
- Yemen
- Sudan
- Libya
- Bhutan
- North Korea
- Somalia
Orange List
- Pakistan
- Russia
- Haiti
- Belarus
- Burma (Myanmar)
- Sierra Leone
- Turkmenistan
- Eritrea
- Laos
- South Sudan
Yellow List
- Antigua and Barbuda
- St. Lucia
- St. Kitts & Nevis
- Cameroon
- Zimbabwe
- Dominica
- Angola
- Cape Verde
- Mali
- Burkina Faso
- Benin
- Malawi
- Gambia
- Liberia
- Congo
- Chad
- Equatorial Guinea
- Mauritania
- Vanuatu
- Sao Tome & Principe
- Cambodia
If you start crunching the numbers, then you’ll find an interesting insight. While 41 countries is a lot of countries, the ban in of itself will have negligible impact on travel to the US. In essence, the ban will have very little negative on the US travel industry.
Travel in the U.S. is roughly a $1.6 trillion industry and the majority of that is driven by the domestic market. Foreign visitors contribute more than $150 billion annually to U.S. tourism. That’s a huge dollar figure but represents just 9% of the total U.S. travel industry.
The Trump 2.0 travel ban is set to affect a few percent of an inbound market that itself represents a single digit share of the U.S. tourism industry. Although the ban may cost the U.S. a few billions of dollars of inbound tourism, the law of large numbers means that this policy will likely represent less than 1% of the U.S. travel industry.
In other words, the new Trump travel ban, in the form it is currently being reported, will likely have a negligible direct impact on the travel industry.
The Pundit’s Mantra: Trump Travel Ban 2.0
While 41 countries seem a lot on the surface, the ban will not have much impact on the US travel industry. Beyond the rhetoric, the ban is going to have minimal impact on the ground. The primary reason? It’s the numbers. On the flip side, it also brings into question the need for a ban, given that it’s not going have much of an impact anyway.
However, what this means is that these travel bans are set to add fuel to the fire. Businesses and governments around the world are bracing for more uncertainty and tumult as travel restrictions add more complexity, in addition to the existing rhetoric from the current US administration on tariffs and trade barriers.
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