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Covid-19 has set the markets on a volatile path and wrecked normal functioning of the economy. Social distancing is the new normal. Global economies are reeling and the travel industry is probably the worst hit. As people take stock of the situation, many frequent travelers are asking the million dollar question. When will travel get back to normal post Covid-19?
Covid-19 and Travel
Even economists are currently divided on whether there will be a U, V or W shaped recovery. Executive Traveler recently published this article which provided some key insights on the short term future of the travel industry.
The first 6-9 months of post-coronavirus travel (mid-late 2021, on our ambit timeline) will see ‘tiptoe travellers’ venturing out.
Across the 8-16 month mark (through to mid-2022) Atmosphere predicts a wave of what it calls ‘pioneers’.
From 12-18 months they’ll be joined by a rush of ‘fast followers’, as the industry sees a ‘near-normal volume of business travellers’ aligned with strong bookings for the premium cabins of business and first class.
At 16-24 months after COVID-19 is considered under control), it’s time for leisure travelers to return en masse as the industry reaches “80-90% of pre-virus leisure volume”, while at 24+ months (2023) Atmosphere expects travel to be “at or above pre-virus traffic”.
The predictions in this article are on expected lines. However, I expect the ‘pioneers’ group to venture out a bit earlier than 12-18 months. The study defines the ‘pioneers’ group as business travelers and and other mid to high tier frequent flyers. Again, a lot will depend on the public health conditions in the US and many countries around the world. If things don’t get better, then we may see this period stretch out further.
The Pundit’s Mantra
Beyond the data itself, this will be an experiment in buyer behavior once governments open travel for their citizens.
How comfortable will people be in sharing spaces in places like lounges, cramped economy seats or long airport lines? Will travelers be immediately comfortable to use ride share or car rentals? In short, what will be the impact of Covid-19 on the sharing economy?
Here’s how I plan to approach this. Firstly, I intend to keep a close eye on government restrictions and announcements, both domestic and international. Secondly, intend to monitor airline schedules. Once airlines announce the reopening or restarting of routes, that’s a positive sign. Thirdly, I’ll make sure I look up health restrictions or screening requirements, especially for international travel.
If your government declares that is safe to travel, how soon will you actually head out for your next trip? Let us know in the comments section.
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As far as international restrictions go, we’ll obviously have to abide by what governments require for entry. Here in the United States, I don’t expect shut down to last much longer. It can’t, economically, with 22 million people (out of a work force of about 165 million) filing for unemployment. The death toll, even that with the distancing measures taken into account, simply isn’t playing out as expected. The response has been broad and heavy-handed rather than focused on the real risk, and will ultimately prove to be a botched effort in hindsight. We have plans for May, June, and… Read more »
Hi Ian,
While I surely hope that’s the case, I’m not sure if opening early would be the best choice. There could be a possible relapse. That’s the reason many economists are pointing at a W recovery as opposed to a V or U. Governments around the world including the US will be facing the tough choice: public health v/s economic growth. It’s a tough balance but I guess most could err on the side of caution.
Wish you safe travels.
YES! More and more people are realizing this is the case. Society demanded ‘safety’ and the bandwagon effect, media and social media all piled on. So, we got a self fulfilling prophecy here. What people didn’t realize, is that as everyone around the world rushed to placate these public complainers – the entire world was plunged into chaos. The level of HYSTERIA people forced on themselves here – is stunning. And the level of misery and suffering we have created because of it – is unlike anything the world has seen. All because people beg to be told what to… Read more »
I think the real game changer for travel prior to a vaccine is testing. IMO this would come on two levels: a recent certification that either you’ve recovered or that you tested negative. The other is to do rapid tests on the airport premises. I suspect that countries will force one or both of these measures on airlines before accepting international passengers once mass testing is practical. While inconvenient, that would speed up the travel cycle listed above.
Hi Christian,
Yes, the airport check-in experience is going to be very different in the short term. More medical checks and longer wait times could be the normal once travel opens up.
Ryan there will be many more articles like this one all with varying bad data or misleading data. The issue is two fold as I see it, one will there be a second wave of the virus as CDC and other agencies have warned that coupled with WHEN do we have an affective vaccine? Second, when will people feel safe getting into a packed main cabin and fly thousands of miles? Same goes for the cruise industry. Certainly there will be modifications to both forms of travel.
Hi Ghostrider,
Thanks for your comment. Yes, for a crisis that’s ongoing and fluid in nature, the level of projections by major global agencies could also change as the situation progresses. Unlike a one-time event, where a cause and effect can directly be looked at, we could see organizations like the WTO or the WEF adjust their estimates. As you pointed out, It’s definitely going to change travelers’ perceptions of being packed in cabin spaces. Also, at least in the short term, people will have to get earlier to the airport due to additional screening measures.
Fake news. Bad data.