This is when travel could return to normal post Covid-19

airlines middle seats

 

Covid-19 has set the markets on a volatile path and wrecked normal functioning of the economy. Social distancing is the new normal. Global economies are reeling and the travel industry is probably the worst hit. As people take stock of the situation, many frequent travelers are asking the million dollar question. When will travel get back to normal post Covid-19?

Covid-19 and Travel

Even economists are currently divided on whether there will be a U, V or W shaped recovery. Executive Traveler recently published this article which provided some key insights on the short term future of the travel industry.

The first 6-9 months of post-coronavirus travel (mid-late 2021, on our ambit timeline) will see ‘tiptoe travellers’ venturing out.

Across the 8-16 month mark (through to mid-2022) Atmosphere predicts a wave of what it calls ‘pioneers’.

From 12-18 months they’ll be joined by a rush of ‘fast followers’, as the industry sees a ‘near-normal volume of business travellers’ aligned with strong bookings for the premium cabins of business and first class.

At 16-24 months after COVID-19 is considered under control), it’s time for leisure travelers to return en masse as the industry reaches “80-90% of pre-virus leisure volume”, while at 24+ months (2023) Atmosphere expects travel to be “at or above pre-virus traffic”.

The predictions in this article are on expected lines. However, I expect the ‘pioneers’ group to venture out a bit earlier than 12-18 months. The study defines the ‘pioneers’ group as business travelers and and other mid to high tier frequent flyers. Again, a lot will depend on the public health conditions in the US and many countries around the world. If things don’t get better, then we may see this period stretch out further.

The Pundit’s Mantra

Beyond the data itself, this will be an experiment in buyer behavior once governments open travel for their citizens.

How comfortable will people be in sharing spaces in places like lounges, cramped economy seats or long airport lines? Will travelers be immediately comfortable to use ride share or car rentals? In short, what will be the impact of Covid-19 on the sharing economy?

Here’s how I plan to approach this. Firstly, I intend to keep a close eye on government restrictions and announcements, both domestic and international. Secondly, intend to monitor airline schedules. Once airlines announce the reopening or restarting of routes, that’s a positive sign. Thirdly, I’ll make sure I look up health restrictions or screening requirements, especially for international travel.

If your government declares that is safe to travel, how soon will you actually head out for your next trip? Let us know in the comments section.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

This card is currently offering a 50,000 points bonus and a 0% Intro APR for 1 year, with a $0 annual fee!

Apply Now

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Never miss out on the best miles/points deals. Like us on Facebook, follow us on Instagram and Twitter to keep getting the latest content!

Total
0
Shares
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

8 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Family Flys Free

As far as international restrictions go, we’ll obviously have to abide by what governments require for entry. Here in the United States, I don’t expect shut down to last much longer. It can’t, economically, with 22 million people (out of a work force of about 165 million) filing for unemployment. The death toll, even that with the distancing measures taken into account, simply isn’t playing out as expected. The response has been broad and heavy-handed rather than focused on the real risk, and will ultimately prove to be a botched effort in hindsight. We have plans for May, June, and… Read more »

George

YES! More and more people are realizing this is the case. Society demanded ‘safety’ and the bandwagon effect, media and social media all piled on. So, we got a self fulfilling prophecy here. What people didn’t realize, is that as everyone around the world rushed to placate these public complainers – the entire world was plunged into chaos. The level of HYSTERIA people forced on themselves here – is stunning. And the level of misery and suffering we have created because of it – is unlike anything the world has seen. All because people beg to be told what to… Read more »

Christian

I think the real game changer for travel prior to a vaccine is testing. IMO this would come on two levels: a recent certification that either you’ve recovered or that you tested negative. The other is to do rapid tests on the airport premises. I suspect that countries will force one or both of these measures on airlines before accepting international passengers once mass testing is practical. While inconvenient, that would speed up the travel cycle listed above.

Ghostrider5408

Ryan there will be many more articles like this one all with varying bad data or misleading data. The issue is two fold as I see it, one will there be a second wave of the virus as CDC and other agencies have warned that coupled with WHEN do we have an affective vaccine? Second, when will people feel safe getting into a packed main cabin and fly thousands of miles? Same goes for the cruise industry. Certainly there will be modifications to both forms of travel.

Ryan

Fake news. Bad data.

Previous Post
a plane flying in the sky

What’s it like flying British Airways Club World to Sydney under COVID-19 pandemic restrictions?

Next Post
a plane flying in the sky

It’s a thumbs up from me on the British Airways refund experience!

More Posts by: The Points Pundit