Airfares To Go Up By 20 Percent? United CEO Scott Kirby Projects $175/Barrel Crude Oil Price

March 25, 2026

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$175 Per Barrel: Higher Airfares Landing Soon?
What United Is Doing About It
Brace For Impact
The Pundit’s Mantra
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United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby sent a candid internal memo to employees last week. It tells us a lot, not just about United’s strategy, but about where airfares, routes and your travel plans could be headed.

$175 Per Barrel: Higher Airfares Landing Soon?

Jet fuel prices have jumped massively in the last three weeks and United is stress-testing its plans against oil hitting $175 per barrel, with no return to $100/barrel until the end of 2027. To put that into perspective, an extra $11 billion in annual fuel costs would dwarf United’s best-ever profit of under $5 billion.

What United Is Doing About It

United is taking a two-track approach:

Short-term route cuts: United is trimming about 5 points of capacity in Q2 and Q3, think redeyes, Tuesday/Wednesday/Saturday flying and some off-peak international routes like Tel Aviv and Dubai. These aren’t permanent, but primarily triggered by the ongoing conflict in the middle east. The plan is to restore the full schedule this fall.

Long-term investment continues at full speed: Despite the fuel shock, United is pressing ahead with deliveries of roughly 120 new aircraft this year, including 20 new 787s and another 130 aircraft by April 2028. They’re also doubling down on tech investment, new airport lounges, hub infrastructure and an expansion at Newark targeting 100 wide body departures a day. That last one is good news for transatlantic travelers.

Brace For Impact

So, based on Kirby’s warning, what could be the ramifications in the short run for travelers?

Fares are likely to rise: If fuel costs stay elevated and competitors start wobbling, expect airfare increases, particularly on leisure-heavy routes. Book ahead if you have concrete travel plans for late 2026.

Award seats may get interesting: When airlines cut capacity, award availability often follows. Keep an eye on whether United trims award redemptions on the affected routes, especially red eyes and midweek flying where they’re pulling back.

Competing airlines could get squeezed badly: Kirby was notably direct about this, United and Delta accounted for essentially all U.S. airline profitability last year. If oil stays high, the carriers already operating on thin margins are going to feel this much harder. That could mean reduced competition on certain routes, which is never great for consumers.

The Pundit’s Mantra

Scott Kirby’s memo seems to be in equal parts reassurance to employees and a signal to the market that United isn’t flinching during times of geopolitical chaos and rising crude oil prices.

The memo also seems to be a message to travelers depicting that United is being cautious yet resilient with their plans, given the uncertainty at the moment. Whether that translates to better products and more award availability down the road, or just higher fares in the short term, remains to be seen.

What do you think about this Scott Kirby memo? Do you think that the increase in airfares could be just short term or stick around much longer? Tell us in the comments section.

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